Game Preview #12: The Akron Game Top Ten

The Game Preview Top Ten.

5 Real Reasons and 5 Joke, but also real, Reasons Buffalo will win.

10) MAC Pressure:

• In November Akron will play a tough schedule, at Temple, at Ball state before hosting Miami (OH) and then hosting Buffalo in the final game.  Temple is a top contender for the MAC East, Miami looks to be improved, with 3 division games, November will make or break Akron's Conference chances.
  
• Buffalo on the other hand travels to Ohio, then gets two easy weeks hosting bottom teams of the MAC West (Ball state and E. Michigan) and will be adequately prepared for the Akron game.

9) Empire State of Mind

Game Preview #12: The Akron Game

Last 5 Years: Buffalo leads 3-2 (won 3 straight) 2-1 at home, 1-1 away.

• 2005 Akron 13 - Buffalo 7
• 2006 Buffalo 16 - Akron 31
• 2007 Akron 10 - Buffalo 26
• 2008 Buffalo 43 - Akron 40 (4ot)
• 2009 Akron 17 - Buffalo 21

In 2008, Buffalo closed down the Rubber Bowl with a 4 overtime thriller that paved Buffalo's way to the MAC east title. 

In 2009, Buffalo won a turnover filled affair led by a 12 reception 100 yard and 2 touchdown performance from Naaman Roosevelt.

You say backup, Cory Jorgensen says best supporting actor in a comedy/drama

Continuing our visual two-deep, we find Cory Jorgensen.  After losing the QB roulette last year, he faced a career as #3 quarterback with a free ride and no responsibility.  Instead, he finds himself with another opportunity to get the starting job, however he probably won't.

The UB quarterback situation is reminiscent of another young black star to move on up to the starting job; George Jefferson.  When George moved on up to the East Side, he could depend on his lovable British neighbor Harry Bentley.  Likewise as Jerry Davis moves on up to the starting job, Cory can find a niche as lovable goofy British guy on the sidelines.

My recommendation, put down the new spread offense playbook, (your too slow to run it anyway) and pick up the box set of the Jeffersons on DVD.

Jerry Davis wants your starting job, and your girl, and your nuggets.

Now that Zach (Turnover Attack) Maynard has fled to Cal to watch his more talented brother squander his gift under Jeff Tedford.  Jerry Davis is the likely opening day starter.  I like his intensity, no one dips on him.

UB What's Next

So the Gill Era is over what's next?

1) Coach

Coach Gill proved that one can win in Buffalo...however, we still lack tradition, and facilities to really compete in D-1 football.  We have too much momentum however to start from scratch so I argue we stay in house and promote Offensive Coordinator Danny Barrett to coach.  He has 6 years professional Head Coaching experience in the CFL and has been the most successful Offensive Coordinator in UB history.

Pre Game Meal: Buffalo at Kent State

Story: Two schools who lost their All-pro senior running backs struggled to win close games this years.  Kent has already clinched 4th place in the MAC east, and Buffalo has already clinched a disappointing 5th place finish.  Kent however, with a win will finish 6-6 and become bowl eligible.

Buffalo Player to Watch: WR Brett Hamlin


Last year, Kent State beat Buffalo in Amherst in a game that was mostly meaningless for both teams.  Hamlin's fumble in the end zone in the last minute gave the game to Kent.  With Namaan Roosevelt's career over, Hamlin has the chance to dominate the game in his last career start at UB.

Kent State Player to Watch: DB's Brian Lainhart, Dan Hartman, Danny Sadler.


The three stars of Kent State's Secondary have 6, 3 and 2 interceptions respectively.


Out of their 11 combined interceptions, 7 have come in their 5 wins.

Comparison Games: Temple, Western Michigan, BGSU, Akron, Miami and Ohio.

The comparisons between Kent State and Buffalo are very similar.  After losing their star player on offense, both teams lost by 1 point to Bowling Green and both teams were trampled by Temple Kent 47-13, Buffalo 37-13.

Based on the numbers, Buffalo's offense is 2.8 points better than Kent State, while the Kent Offense is 1.2 points better than UB.


Buffalo wins by 1.

The Three Heroes of Week 11

3) Turner Gill

Watching a team go 1-11, really makes me appreciate Turner and the fact that we can complain about having 4 or 5 wins. Turner answered my pleas by going for the score at the end of the half and finished hard. I’d describe Buffalo in 2009 as Jainist Monk-like…trying to play while being cautious not to harm any living creature. Wednesday, Turner put Jainism away and put the hurt on Miami with a 24 point beat down that bodes well for the future toughness of our team.

Post Game Meal - Buffalo 42, Miami 17

The key to the game was Buffalo showing up and not letting Miami build momentum.  Brandon “Son of Alonzo” Thermilus showed up for the first time all season scoring two touchdowns in after a sluggish first quarter. 

Turner showed some coaching guts by leading a drive at the end of the first half.  The result, two scores in 2:27 minutes to change the game from a 7-3 score to 21-3 going into halftime.  In addition a trick play to open the half put the game away.

Pre Game Meal: Buffalo at Miami

Story: Buffalo plays for pride while Miami looks for inspiration for next season. 

Buffalo Player to Watch: Everyone

Miami is 1-10.  This is one of those games where each player has to show up and play.  If they can do that they should win.  Two weeks ago, Temple made the mistake of coming in looking for an easy win, but there is no such thing in the MAC anymore, Temple escaped with a 34-32 after kicking the winning field goal with 3 seconds left. Come out and play, you win.  Lack effort, you may just lose, it’s as simple as that.

Miami Player to Watch: QB Zac Dysert.

Dysert is the Redhawks offense.  He is a 2000 yard passer and Miami’s second leading rusher.  As a freshman, he struggles with interceptions, break his confidence early, and he’s toast, let him build up his confidence and he can hurt you.

 
Comparison Games: Western Michigan, Ohio, Temple & Bowling Green.

Each team lost to all four teams.  Buffalo scored on average 24.25 points while giving up 32 points.  Miami meanwhile has scored 19.75 points while allowing 36.25 points.

Based on those numbers, UB is 4.5 points better than Miami on offense and 4.25 points better than Miami on defense.

Buffalo wins by 9.

So I have slacked....

Lets Catch up, first the good news:

The Buffalo Sabres beat Edmonton, Calgary and the hated Flyers to go 3-0 during last weeks Wednesday, Friday Saturday series of games. Today they lost the easy Wednesday game to Florida 6-2. We get the Bruins and Senators back to back this weekend, leading both teams by 5 and 4 points respectively. Possibly the biggest hockey weekend in the early season we'll cover it later this week.

Now for the bad news.

The Bills lost to the Titans falling to 3-6 making the decade without playoffs all but complete. Also my second favorite Dick was fired. I heard Kevin Gilbride is considered for the job and I threw up in my mouth a little. Anyway we get the Jaguars in Florida in the battle of teams trying to avoid moving to the City of Industry. I don't want to spoil the preview but Bills run D vs elite running back = a loss.

The UB Bulls playing for nothing but pride, which is less satisfying now than in 2007, beat the Miami of Ohio Red(hawks). I'll write a Pregame meal and post date it, then write a post game meal and follow up with the first ever 3 heroes segment.

The UB Basketball team opened their season with a one point loss at home to Vermont they go to Maryland, this week possible actual reporting by our reluctant Mid-Atlantic correspondant.

Buffalo at Miami Live

The Three Goats of Week 10

3) UB True Blue

Watching on ESPN, I couldn't help but notice the home field advantage we had in ESPN games last year was not around. On Senior Day, the last game of the year and with the team facing elimination from Bowl Eligibility, I wanted to see a packed house really rattling the Ohio team. Instead I felt I could hear each persons individual cheer. I saw the diehards, this goat is not for you, but the fair weathers, 60 in Buffalo is as fair as your going to get in November even if the team is 3-6, so get in the stands.

Post Game Meal - Ohio 27, Buffalo 24

The Keys to the game was Jeffvon Gill getting 100+ yards, and preventing Matt Weller from stealing points when the Ohio Offense stalls.

Unfortunately Jeffvon Gill did not have success against Ohio going 9 carries for 32 yards. The UB backfield combined to go 18 for 86. As stated in the Pre Game Meal, Ohio allows 77.8 yards a game in their victories, and the weak running effort played into their hands.

Also unfortunate is that my football reports are very accurate, while my weather reports are not so much. UB stadium was particularly warm and calm for November, giving Matt Weller no problem with his 2 fgs, (47 yard long) and 3 extra points. Weller is 28% of Ohio's points for the season, this week, he was 37.5%. Ohio's offense typically stalled in the second half, but Weller's solid kicking once again bailed Ohio out and led to a victory.

Stats: UB is now 2-5 in games settled by 7 points or less, in 2008 they were 4-3 in those games.

Pre Game Meal: Ohio at Buffalo

Story: Buffalo needs to win out to become bowl eligible meanwhile Ohio at 4-1 in the MAC needs to win to keep up with Temple before the Temple-Ohio showdown in two weeks.

Buffalo Player to Watch: RB Jeffvon Gill

Gill went 23 for 172 last week and gets his first start today. Ohio tends runs the ball poorly, and Buffalo has the opportunity to control the clock and wear down the Ohio defense while resting the UB D. In Ohio's 6 wins, they have allowed a healthy 77.8 yards on the ground, so a decent outing is not enough to wear down the Bobcats. In Ohio's 3 losses, they have allowed 135.6 yards rushing. Gill will have to carry the load and move the pile this week. If he can average 7.3/ carry again, then UB should "run away" with this one.

Ohio Player to Watch: K Matt Weller

Ohio is 8th in rushing and 8th in passing and 11th in 3rd down conversions in the MAC, yet they are 5th in points.

Ever point has been important for an Ohio team that doesn't move the ball very well. In conference play Freshman Weller has gone 8/9, including a 52 yard kick last game vs. Ball State.

In conference Weller has made up 28% of Ohio's points. If Ohio can get 40 and 50 yard kicks from Weller in a cold and windy UB Stadium it will be the difference tonight.

Comparison Games: Akron, Bowling Green.

Each team played Akron and Bowling Green this year, Ohio beat BGSU 44-37, and Akron 19-7 while UB beat Akron 21-17 and lost to BGSU last week 30-29.

Based on those numbers, Ohio is 6.5 points better than UB on offense and 1.5 points better than UB on defense.

Ohio wins by 8.

Bowling Green at Buffalo Preview

Buffalo Player to Watch: Zach Maynard

Maynard has thrown 11 interceptions this season.  UB is 2-0 when Maynard does not throw an INT, but 1-5 When Maynard throws a pick.  Bulls live and die on the turnovers margin, they end plus, they win the game.

Bowling Green Player to Watch: Freddie Barnes

Barnes has 99 receptions in 8 games, averaging 12 receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown per game.
In 3 wins, Barnes averages 16 receptions for 198 yards, and 2.6 touchdowns per game.
In 5 losses, Barnes averages 10 receptions for 92 yards and .2 touchdowns.

You can't stop Freddie Barnes this year, but keep his yards per catch down and keep him out of the end zone  and you can stop the Falcons.


Comparison Game: Central Michigan

Each team played Central Michigan this year, BGSU lost 24-10, UB lost 20-13.

Based on those numbers, UB is 3 points better than BGSU on offense and 4 points better than BGSU on defense.

UB wins by 7.

Tuesday Night Football

"UB is playing on Tuesday?" - My non-UB alumni, but native Buffalonian friend.

Yes UB plays on Tuesday for most of the final month of the year, did this last year too.  When the MAC conference sold their souls to ESPN, they allowed the network to customize the MAC schedule.  The result, games on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and whenever else ESPN has an open time slot.  I was openly critical of it, because they are messing with student schedules, and the tradition of college Saturday.  However last year I found I was wrong; off peak football is great for alcoholics and gamblers, and I am an alcoholic.  Plus ESPN games are great for me, because I don't live in Buffalo and I get to see games on TV for once.

It's especially great this year, Bills on Sunday, Monday Night Football on Monday, UB Bulls on Tuesday, Sabres Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.  This schedule pretty much doubles my weekly beer and wing intake, and it's just magnificent.

Stay tuned for UB vs BGSU preview and post during the game today.